African Capital Markets - The Potentials & The Lost Opportunities.

Guest Post by:
BOAKYE OGYEM EMMANUEL. ( 0261528542 / ogyemb@yahoo.com)
A few days ago, I decided to research Africa’s capital markets, and to my astonishment I realized that most of these markets were very resilient to exchange rate fluctuations and the debilitating effect of inflation. These findings fascinated my imagination and re-oriented my negative stereotypical perception about Africa’s capital markets. However my greatest disbelieve dawn on me when I realized that the GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE (GSE COMPOSITE INDEX) far out-performed the S&P 500 of the UNITED STATE OF AMERICA in terms of dollar adjusted returns within the years of 1992-2013, this means that passive investors in Ghana within the aforementioned years were better off than their counterparts in the united States. The research choose 1992 as the base year solely due to two reasons, firstly it was the year Ghana declared democratic rule and entered into the 4threpublic, making its capital market attractive to foreign investors. Secondly, it marks the start of the longest bull market in the history of the United States, which spanned for almost 7yrs, between the years of 1992-1999. The Ghana stock exchange in the mist of significant macro-economic pressures such as ,an annual compounded cedi depreciation rate of 18.54%, unwarranted high levels of inflation in the 90’s and a sluggish economic growth amid lackluster energy sector , surmounted to become more profitable than the S&P 500. Now let’s move on to the number crunching that reinforce these assertions, in 1992 the GSE all shares Index traded with a value of 62.17, by the end of the year 2013 the value of the GSE COMPOSITE INDEX was 2,145.20 after adjusting the Composite index to the ALL SHARES INDEX which was previously used by market participants until 2010,we arrived at a value of 16313.66 for year 2013. This value reflects an annualized return of 28.90% for all investors who had invested during the aforementioned investment horizon. One may ask how do these numbers translate into millions of cedis for the average Ghanaian who had invested in the GSE within the 1990’s? the answer will be an enormous amount of wealth, if an investor had invested a sum of GH₵1000 on the exchange within the year 1992 he/she would have pocketed a whooping sum of GH₵266,418.3791 (the equivalent of 2.6 billion old Ghana cedi’s) by the end of 2013 , not convinced? then add a zero to the initial amount invested , that is if an individual had invested an amount of GH₵10,000 in 1992 for his kid or dream house , that individual would have now pocked almost GH₵2.66million new Ghana cedi (the equivalent of 26 billion old Ghana ), yes!!! The individual would have been a millionaire due to the power of compounding, and the resilience of a stock exchange that has triumph against the overwhelming odds of high inflation and significant exchange rate fluctuations. One amazing discovery is that many Ghanaians during this same period gave far more money needed to invest and achieve these sterling results to dubious connection men, in other to seek greener pastures outside the country. However, the returns from the exchange indicates that those who stayed behind and placed their bet on the stock exchange are now better off and perhaps “millionaires” relative to their foes who went outside for greener pastures. As a value oriented investor I deemed it necessary to determine if there existed significant value in stocks trading outside my home land , due to this I decided to compare the results of the GSE to the US dollar and the S&P 500 index. Thorough data gathered from renowned investment sites (CNN MONEY, BLOOMBERG DATA etc.) indicates that the S&P 500 started with a value of 262.79 in 1992 as at 31st December 2013, the index was trading at a value of 1813.036; this represents an annualized value of 9.1759% on a compounded basis. That means that if an investor had invested $1000 in the S&P 500 for the 22yrs period he/she would have pocketed an amount of $6,897.79 for year-end 2013. In order to reasonably compare these exchanges a dollar adjusted return for the GSE Composite index was computed to be an annualized 10.35% for the same investment horizon. However the S&P’S annualized gain was 9.1759%. Data used for the dollar adjusted return was acquired from Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia’s speech titled “RESTORING THE VALUE OF THE CEDI”. According to the article the cedi value against the US dollar during 1992 was at GH₵0.05208 (the equivalent of ₵520 old Ghanaian cedi), as at 2013 the value of the cedi was GH₵2.20 (the equivalent of ₵22,000 old Ghana cedi). This represents an annualized compounded depreciation rate of 18.55% which lags against the GSE index’s sterling performance. Finally, from the research it’s apparent that the GSE (GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE) has shown its superiority amid a turbulent exchange rate fluctuations, economic sluggishness and unabated inflationary pressures , to emerge as the best investment entity for the long term. Furthermore, it’s strategically positioned than ever before to produce sterling performance going forward, this can partly be attributed to increase positive inflow of FDI, strong economic growth fundamentals, stable political climate and copious oil /natural gas reserves. With all these positive factors looming in the long run, I think we should all start investing into the future to realize our unlimited gains in the stock market.
Source: (CNN MONEY, ANNUAL REPORT GHANA, REUTERS, ARTICLE FROM DR.BAWUMIA, WIKIPEDIA , INVESTINGAFRICA.COM)

New Kid on GSE - Mega African Capital Ltd Listed.

Just so you don't know:
Mega African Capital Limited (“MAC”) announced that it has allotted 1,333,334 ordinary shares of GHS 3.00 each in the capital of MAC (“Shares”), which rank pari passu with the existing 7,308,135 ordinary shares in issue, pursuant to the offer for subscription of up to 1,333,334 (the “Offer”) in connection with MAC’s listing on the Ghana Stock Exchange  (“GSE”). This is the first ever listing of a Company which invests in equities across Africa and the real estate sector in Ghana. IC Securities (Ghana) Limited was engaged by MAC as Financial Advisor and Sponsoring Broker on this landmark Transaction

The Offer was opened between 10 March and 28 March 2014 with 1,333,334 shares offered at GHS 3.00 per share. During this period, 30 valid applications were received for 1,333,334 Shares representing a total amount of GHS 4,000,002. The listing and the first day of trading of Shares on the GSE was on 23 April 2014.

Comment by Mr. Kwesi Amonoo-Neizer, Managing Director,:
“I am delighted by the success of our offer; this is the first Company that

Mutual Monday: Investment Funds (Mutual funds & Unit Trusts) in Ghana.

Today is another Mutual Monday and welcome to my blog. In today’s post I would outline the various types of investment funds we have in Ghana and the fund managers of each. Mutual funds and Unit trusts are referred to as investment funds. Mutual Fund is an investment vehicle that is made up of a pool of funds collected from many investors for the purpose of investing in securities such as bonds, stocks, money instruments and similar assets. Each shareholder or unit holder participates proportionally in the gain or loss of the fund. In my next posts, I would go into details and explain how it is managed or priced.

Only 38 West African companies made it to the list of Africa's Top 250 companies

Over thousands of companies are registered in West Africa. Most of which are registered in Nigeria, Ghana and Cote d' Ivoire. But despite the numbers, only thirty eight of  West African companies made it to the list of Africa's Top 250 Companies.

Africa's Top 250 Companies list is compiled annually by the African Business team and in the April issue of the AFRICAN BUSINESS magazine, financial data from Dr. Ayo Salami, (co-founder of African Business Research Ltd) as at 31st December 2011 indicated that

1st Quarter Analysis of the Manufacturing sector on the Ghana Stock Exchange

The Manufacturing sector on the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) include stocks like that of Unilever Ghana Ltd. (UNIL), PZ Cussons Ghana Ltd. (PZC), Aluworks Limited (ALW) and the Pioneer Kitchen Limited (PKL). PKL is no more listed on the GSE with effect from 26^th March 2012 due to a sanction from the exchange for refusing to observe the continuing listing obligation including failure to hold annual general meetings. This move by the GSE reduces the market capitalization and that of the manufacturing sector by about GHS 2 million (about $1.25 million).

This sector on the exchange is dominated by Unilever Ghana Ltd; with a market capitalization of GHS 509.37 million (about $312.50 million), making it the most capitalized in the manufacturing sector.

UNIL

Unilever Ghana Limited (UNIL) manufactures and markets consumer goods throughout Ghana some of which includes toilet soaps, personal products, detergents, and consumable food products.

UNIL: 1st Quarter Chart on GSE: (courtesy; Bloomberg & GSE) 

This year, UNIL began trading at GHS 6.64 (03.01.12) per share on the exchange and saw price hikes to close at GHS 8.15 as at today with a Year-High of GHS 8.15 and a Year-Low of GHS 6.63. An investment made in UNIL exactly one year ago would yield 31.34% profit.  UNIL records a Price/Book value of 8.0428 in the most recent Quarter with Earning per share and Price/Earnings ratio of 0.5081 and 16.0388 (trailing 12 months) respectively.

PZC

PZC 1st Quarter Chart on GSE: (courtesy; Bloomberg & GSE) 

PZ Cussons Ghana Ltd. (PZC) is another company in the manufacturing sector on the GSE. This company is the manufacturer of over-the-counter pharmaceutical preparations, cosmetics and beauty products. PZC began trading on the exchange in 2012 with a share price of 0.24p (03.01.12) and since then, there was no price change. The 1^st quarter did not favour PZC in terms of price change although it traded some volumes of share in the quarter. With a market capitalization of GHS 40.32 million, PZC recorded a dividend yield (trailing 12 months) of GHS 1.5694 and as reported by Bloomberg, an enterprise value of GHS 38.54 million.

ALW

ALW: 1st Quarter Chart on GSE: (courtesy; Bloomberg & GSE) 

Aluworks Ghana Limited as the name implies works with aluminum. It is an aluminum rolling mill with produces semi-finished and finished aluminum sheet in coil, circles, flat sheet and corrugated roofing sheets. This company was incorporated on February 24, 1978 and currently has a market capitalization of GHS 6.44 million making it the lowest in the manufacturing sector on the exchange since PKL has been suspended. ALW began the quarter and the year with a 0.13p share price (03.01.12)  and later dropped to 0.12p to 0.9p and now closed at 0.07p per share. With an obvious Year-High of 0.13p and a Year-low of 0.07p/share, ALW has a Price/Book of 0.2355, Earning per share (trailing 12 months) of -0.0977 and an Enterprise value of GHS 28.04 million.

The Manufacturing Sector as a whole did not performed so well despite the driving and dominating strength of UNIL in the sector. Investors should follow closely activities in this particular sector and look for the opportunities. 

Building the Economy: Middle Class of Ghana Unconcerned

Are we really sleeping? Then it is time to wake up.

The Middle Class in Ghana, simply don't care. They find means to solve public problems in personal ways and just remain unconcerned, very quiet!! It's a culture problem, people say. Others say Ghanaians just think about their families and not the Public. Scholars blame it on education, stating that, "you can't teach an old dog new tricks". But is this helping the nation? Would it ever? How can we develop with this? Why won't us remain poor? Failed government or State, Failed Top Class, Now failing Middle class & educated elites, and the Voiceless/uneducated poor (which are the most populated).

We have the platforms, we don't use them. We have the knowledge, we don't apply it to help our nation, the worst of all, we sell them cheap to other nations. We have the energy, we misuse it. Oh Mother Ghana!!! How long would the Middle Class decide to be silent. It's pathetic they understand the problems better than anyone but decide to stay away.

Typical Middle Class (educated elites) Behaviors:

Power outage:- Put on the generator (For the family alone) and shut up.

Water Problem:- Get enough Poly-tanks to store water for the family. Don't care about the community or person next door (who's probably voiceless).

Education:- Send children to schools abroad. (No Teachers' strike).

Health:- Go to private hospitals. Don't care if doctors are on strike.

Ehhhhh!!!! My people. Are we safe? When the Voiceless or low class decide to talk or fight back, can we stand them? Ghana, we can't afford to fail God and the next Generation. Let's act NOW in all sectors of the economy. Let's be responsible and not think about our families alone. Let's build the economy of Ghana.

Oh Ghana!!!!. God Help us. Long Live Ghana

History of Initial Public Offers (IPO) in the Ghanaian Capital Market.

Initial Public Offering which is popularly known as IPO comes about when companies issue new shares to the public to purchase as a source of raising capital. Ghana has a wonderful history of IPOs and since the inception of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE), there have been so many IPOs with an impressive performance in the market. Meanwhile others were just so bad and despite their impressive subscriptions, they traded badly on exchange.

On 12^th November, 1990, Accra Brewery Limited (ABL) made a provisional listing on the Ghana Stock Exchange, making it one of the earliest companies to be listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange. This company and others existed before the inceptions of the GSE Public Limited Liability Companies hence were initially given provisional listing status before the formal listing. ABL made its formal listing on 20^th December, 1991 (Source; GSE Research Dept.).

One IPO listing was by SPPC and this was from December to February 1992. Eight (8) million shares were offered but only 4.2 million shares were sold to raise an amount of 630 million old cedis (GHC 63,000). Mechanical LLoyd Company Ltd (MLC) also offered 11 million shares as IPO at 50 old cedis (0.05 pesewas) per share from December 1993 to February 1994 and only 9.36 million shares were sold which raised an amount of 468.16 million old cedis (GHC46,816). Looking at these historical trends, it is obvious that early IPOs were cheap but subscriptions were not impressive. In January 1995, HFC Bank stocks were oversubscribed when they made a placement.  Shares offered were 11.35 million at 100 old cedis (0.10 pesewas) and 13.10 million shares were sold to raise about 1,315.45 million old cedis (GHC 131,545). Most of the time, shares of this nature were patronized by foreigners because the investment community of Ghana was small by then. Aside the HFC placement, SSB (now known as SG-SSB) IPO in 1995 was also oversubscribed. Many companies like ALW, UTC, PZ, EIC, FML made primary issues which were not necessarily IPOs. In 2006, Ghana Commercial Bank (GCB) issued and IPO of 49.50 million shares but 68.44 million shares were subscribed. This oversubscription set the pace for most IPOs and the investment community of Ghana especially the youth, took advantage of them. Initial Public Offers of Camelot (CMLT), Produce Buying Company (PBC), Sam Wood Ltd (SWL), Cocoa Producing Company (CPC) followed and in 2004 alone, four (4) Companies (CLYD, BOPP, CAL & SPL) listed IPOs on the GSE. But how well do the trade on the Exchange?

About two year ago, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) offered an IPO that was largely subscribed meanwhile these shares are facing liquidity problems as at now in the market. Share price of ETI has fallen below its IPO price and shareholders are not happy at all.  UT Bank entered the market with an IPO which was also oversubscribed but the question still remains, do IPOs perform well in the market. Shares of UT bank had so many problems when it started trading in the market but is currently bouncing back.

The most recent IPO issued in the market is the shares of Tullow Oil, just weeks ago and these were undersubscribed. Does it mean that the investment community is no longer having confidence in IPOs or it was due to the costly price of this particular offer? As an investor, you must find out because this can inform your investment decision.