Tuesday, December 30, 2014

TEN LARGEST SHAREHOLDERS OF GOIL


TEN LARGEST SHAREHOLDERS of GOIL (as at 2013)
Shareholders
Number of Shares
Percentage Holding (%)



1 Government Of Ghana
128,889,623
51.10
2 Social Security & National Insurance Trust
46,699,835
18.52
3 The Quantum Group Limited
22,548,383
8.94
4 Hopefield Capital Limited
4,365,420
1.73
5 Scbn/Stanchart Mauritius Re
2,785,016
1.10
6 Mr. Daniel Ofori
1,091,138
0.43
7 Edc Stock Brokers Limited
849,420
0.34
8 Scbn/Elac Policy Holders Fund
845,124
0.34
9 SCGN/RBC Hyposwiss (LUX) Fund-Africa
456,000
0.18
10 Mr Victor Kwadwo Djangmah
412,440
0.16

Monday, December 29, 2014

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY GOIL SHARES

Today, I’ve decided to feature my good friend Boakye Ogyem as he expresses his thoughts and findings on GOIL.  I personally hold GOIL shares. Not much though.  Do you? What are your  views on GOIL and would you advise someone to buy GOIL? Do you agree with Boakye? Let me read your views on this stock.


WHY YOU SHOULD BUY GOIL SHARES BEFORE FIRST QUARTER 2015 by Boakye Ogyem

For quite a time now I have taken the stress upon myself to extensively scrutinize all shares listed on the stock exchange, all in the name of seeking alpha for my portfolio. My relentless effort in search of undervalued companies with strong earning fundamentals engendered the stock named GOIL, listed on the GSE. The rational for choosing this great company is listed below.

STRONG GROWTH PROSPECTS:
The current macro-economic variables bodes well for petroleum distribution companies in general, with the incessant power shortages undauntedly looming , it’s obvious that many productive economics activities will increase their consumption for oil to compensate for inadequate electricity. In fact gasoline percentage share of the national energy demand will surge in the upcoming years due to inefficient power supply. Secondly the expansion of GOIL market share in lucrative and unregulated industries such as aviation and fuel bunkering indicates that the company’s future prospects are great, after all apart from VIP BUS what other means can the high income earners travel to Kumasi /Takoradi in order to broker their deals safely and timely? Aviation, Currently GOIL has a 3year compounded Sales growth rate of 33.3% which shadows the revenue performance of all listed non-financial stocks on the GSE.

RETURN TO INCREASING PROFITABILITY:
Do you know that GOIL was experiencing a decline in profitability? Yes for almost three good years beginning 2009-2012 GOIL’s profitability measured with net profit margins kept tumbling from a high of 1.4% t0 1.18%. Currently, this company boasts of a profitability margin of 1.78% (evidenced in their third quarter 2014financial report), this indeed manifest that the company is not only increasing growth but rather churning more profit out of every single sales they make. Furthermore EPS growth for the past three years has shown an astronomical surge, displaying a compounded growth rate of 35%. This indeed is a great news, we have a company growing earning faster than sales which postulates that its really increasing its operational efficiency.

ATTRACTIVE VALUATIONS:
I’m personally of the view that this stock is currently undervalued and should experience a price surge coming early part first quarter, firstly the P/E ratio is unjustifiable relative to the industry’s P/E ratio which hovers around 16. Secondly the third quarter results of GOIL shows an increase in sales of GHC 1.1billion with an EPS of 0.079 for third quarter only. From the historical total leverage of 0.45 its clear that GOIL’s end of year sales will hit the region of GHC 1.6 billion , this will push end of period earning per share to 0.1145 which is almost 8% above the consensus end of year estimate of 0.105.Therefore applying a P/E ratio of 12 ,which is a fraction of what its peer rival TOTAL company is trading for, will results in a price of 0.1145*12= GHC 1.38 , this is a 31.4% surge in price if bought at today’s price of GHC 1.05.


DISCLAIMER: THOUGH THE EARNING PER SHARE ESTIMATE IS THOROUGHLY RESEARCHED BASED ON HISTORICAL THIRD TO FINAL YEAR REPORT ANALYSIS, IT SOMETIMES DO CHANGE EXPECIALLY WHEN MANAGEMENT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL SHARES. IF MANAGEMENT DOESN’T ISSUE EXTRA SHARES THEN EXPECT A PRICE SURGE EARLY PART NEXT YEAR THANK YOU.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

CAL BANK: FACTS BEHIND THE FIGURES


Overview of CAL BANK

Performance of Listed Bank on the Ghana Stock Exchange

CAL Bank Financial Statement Highlights

Asset Mix

Deposit Mix

Share Performance - Jan - Sept 2014

Friday, November 14, 2014

How the stock market really works

Once upon a time in a village, a man announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs 10.
The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them..
The man bought thousands at Rs 10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort.
He further announced that he would now buy at Rs20.
This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.
Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms.
The offer rate increased to Rs 25 and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!
The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Rs 50!
However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of him.
In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers. Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at Rs 35 and when the man returns from the city, you can sell it to him for Rs 50."
The villagers squeezed up with all their savings and bought all the monkeys.
Then they never saw the man nor his assistant, only monkeys everywhere!
Welcome to the 'Stock Market'!!!!!!!!

Monday, October 20, 2014

STARTING A HEDGE FUND IN GHANA


As we gradually approach the hedge fund era in Ghana, I'll be writing series of articles on hedge fund  management and how fellow investors can take advantage of the opportunity. 
The most popular structured investment known to the common investor is the bank of Ghana Treasury bill. Perhaps because of its near zero risk feature. However, some other options exist such as the mutual funds and shares/stocks. All other investment options are mostly a variation of the three above and a typical example is the fixed deposit which takes after the T-bill.
In other jurisdictions, several more options are available with varying degrees of risk. Examples include bonds, hedge funds, derivatives etc. several variations of the above options exist and this largely depends on the investors risk level.
This piece however is to explore how we can add another investment option to the existing few, thus the Hedge Fund.
As implied by the name, a hedge fund is supposed to hedge against a particular risk. Thus, its purpose is to maximize investor returns and eliminate risk regardless of the whether the market is bullish or bearish.
Wikipedia defines a hedge fund as “at its most basic, a hedge fund is an investment vehicle that pools capital from a number of investors and invests in securities and other instruments” It is similar to mutual funds in many ways but is operationally different.
The following is worth noting about Hedge Funds:
1.      Hedge fund managers usually target high net worth individuals. Thus to invest in them, one has to meet certain net worth requirements making this type of investment only for the rich and wealthy.

2.       Unlike mutual funds that are limited by regulations as to where and what to invest in (which are mostly shares, money market and bonds) a hedge fund's investment portfolio is limited only by its own policy. It can basically invest in anything anywhere - land, real estate, stocks, derivatives, currencies anywhere in the world

3.      Hedge funds have evolved from their traditional risk reduction to investor return maximization and therefore employ very sophisticated and sometimes aggressive investment and portfolio management strategies in order to achieve this objective. Their strategies are mostly speculative in nature and as they aim to always be ahead of the market. This activity increases their risk exposure in the market.

4.      Unlike mutual funds that rely exclusively on funds contributed by shareholders of the fund, a hedge fund may borrow funds to invest.  This investment technique is called leveraging or gearing and it could significantly increase return potential of the fund but also cause a greater risk of loss.

5.      Mutual fund managers are paid fees regardless of their funds’ performance. Hedge fund managers however receive a percentage of the returns they are able to generate for investors in addition to a fund management fee.
Hedge funds are known to have the ability to raise billions of dollars and are very efficient at investing. They return very high proceeds to investors and have become very popular in developed countries. Because they are not limited by geographical location, they are able to take advantage of financial markets all over the world.
Hedge fund industry has grown tremendously in the last decade from $625 billion in assets under management in 2002 to an industry record of $2.01 trillion in the closing months of 2011. This growth has been fueled mainly by investors who seek to diversify and manage their risk while ensuring that their returns are reliable overtime and Institutional investors have had the most impact for obvious reasons.
Indeed, institutions like SSNIT, insurance companies, investment firms, banks, and certain government intuitions will be key in the embellishment of a hedge fund in Ghana. The nature of the Ghanaian financial market and the of the entire sub region for that matter may require that most of the greater percentage of the hedge fund portfolio be done in highly developed markets like the US, Europe and Asia.

Courtesy: Abekah-Brown Abdallah K

Thursday, October 9, 2014

The Psy-Fi Blog: Be Humble, Become Wealthy

I strongly recommend you read this:



The Psy-Fi Blog: Be Humble, Become Wealthy: Thrusting, Decisive and Frequently Wrong We are both by design and by culture inclined to be anything but humble in our approach to inv.........

Sunday, September 21, 2014

How does the foreign-exchange market trade 24 hours a day?

The forex market is the largest financial market in the world, trading around $1.5 trillion each day. Trading in the forex is not done at one central location but is conducted between participants through electronic communication networks (ECNs) and phone networks in various markets around the world. 

The market is open 24 hours a day from 5pm EST on Sunday until 4pm EST Friday. The reason that the markets are open 24 hours a day is that currencies are in high demand. The international scope of currency trading means that there are always traders somewhere who are making and meeting demands for a particular currency.
 

Currency is also needed around the world for international trade, as well as bycentral banks
 and global businesses. Central banks have relied on foreign-exchange markets since 1971 - when fixed-currency markets ceased to exist because the gold standard was dropped. Since that time, most international currencies have been "floated", rather than pegged to the value of gold. 

At each second of every day, countries' economies are growing and shrinking because of economic and political instability and infinite other perpetual changes. Central banks seek to stabilize their country's currency by trading it on the open market and keeping a relative value compared to other world currencies. Businesses that operate in many countries seek to mitigate the risks of doing business in foreign markets and
 hedge currency risk. 

To do this, they enter into
 currency swaps, giving them the right, but not necessarily the obligation to buy a set amount of a foreign currency for a set price in another currency at a date in the future. By doing this, they are limiting their exposure to large fluctuations in currency valuations. Due to the importance of currencies on the international stage there needs to be round-the-clock trading at all times. Domestic stock, bond and commodity exchanges are not as relevant, or in need, on the international stage and are not required to trade beyond the standard business day in the issuer's home country. Due to the focus on the domestic market, demand for trade in these markets is not high enough to justify opening 24 hours a day, as few shares would be traded at 3am, for example. 
The ability of the forex to trade over a 24-hour period is due in part to different time zones and the fact it is comprised of a network of computers, rather than any one physical exchange that closes at a particular time. When you hear that the U.S. dollar closed at a certain rate, it simply means that that was the rate at market close in New York. But it continues to be traded around the world long after New York's close, unlike securities. 

The forex market can be split into three main regions: Australasia, Europe and North America. Within each of these main areas there are several major financial centers. For example, Europe is comprised of major centers like London, Paris, Frankfurt and Zurich. Banks, institutions and
 dealers all conduct forex trading for themselves and their clients in each of these markets. 

Each day of forex trading starts with the opening of the Australasia area, followed by Europe and then North America. As one region's markets close another opens, or has already opened, and continues to trade in the forex market. Often these markets will overlap for a couple hours providing some of the most active forex trading. So if a forex trader in Australia wakes up at 3am and decides to trade currency, they will be unable to do so through forex dealers located in Australasia but they can make as many trades as they want through European or North American dealers. With all of this action happening across borders with little attention to time and space, the sum is that there is no point during the trading week that a participant in the forex market can't potentially make a currency trade.
 


Monday, September 1, 2014

Top Gainers on the Ghana Stock Exchange

Sector Ticker Year Open Closing Price YTD
Banking  ETI 0.19 0.33 73.68%
Banking  HFC 0.96 1.35 40.63%
Manufacturing SWL 0.03 0.04 33.33%
Banking  SOGEGH 0.75 0.97 29.33%
Banking  EBG 5.61 7.07 26.02%
Banking  SCB 14.94 18.20 21.82%
Distribution and Trading TOTAL 5.06 6.10 20.55%
Investment Management MAC 3.10 3.59 15.81%
Distribution and Trading GOIL 0.89 1.00 12.36%
Agro-Processing BOPP 3.21 3.60 12.15%
Pharmaceuticals AYRTN 0.17 0.18 5.88%
Insurance SIC 0.39 0.41 5.13%
Mining TLW 34.98 35.05 0.20%


INDUSTRY VALUES
Values
Industry Industry YTD Industry P/E Industry P/B Industry ROE
Agro-Processing 12.15%                 7.95                 1.03 30.33%
Banking  119.12%               12.68                 1.94 22.33%
Brewery -59.68%            128.87                 3.47 2.69%
Consumer Goods  -106.52% #DIV/0!               12.94 -13.09%
Distribution and Trading -26.07%               14.46                 3.10 2.49%
Food -24.47%               35.19                 7.60 21.61%
ICT -25.00%               (1.48)                 2.78 -19.62%
Insurance -4.98%               14.41                 1.03 7.69%
Manufacturing -49.17%                 4.54                 1.62 -541.87%
Mining -14.71%          (842.93)                 1.46 -10.23%
Pharmaceuticals 5.88%               50.40                 1.54 10.29%
Investment Management 15.81%                 1.95                 1.49 76.18%

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